Alondras 2–1 Choco: Result & Stats

Alondras

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Choco

10/15/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 5Campo do Morrazo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Alondras45%

×Draw28%

Choco28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AlondrasExpected goals in this matchChoco

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

0.98

Alondras

1.33

Choco

0.98

Alondras creates 36% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 59 away

1.25

creates per match

0.92

1.03

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Alondras

1.25

Choco

0.92

allows per match

Alondras

1.03

Choco

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alondras+0.00on par

Choco+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alondras ↓

Choco →

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Alondras or draw

72%

Alondras or Choco

72%

Draw or Choco

55%

Winning margin

Alondras wins by 2+

21%

Choco wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Alondras 1+ goals

74%

Alondras 2+ goals

38%

Alondras 3+ goals

15%

Choco 1+ goals

62%

Choco 2+ goals

26%

Choco 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Alondras (draw refunded)

62%

Choco (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Alondras at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.03 · 110 matches

Choco away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.42 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Alondras attack 1.25 + Choco defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.33

Choco attack 0.92 + Alondras defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 45%?"

Alondras scores more

45%

level

28%

Choco scores more

28%

Alondras at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Alondras will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff