Alondras 1–1 Celta de Vigo III: Result & Stats

Alondras

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Celta de Vigo III

12/14/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 14Campo do Morrazo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Alondras37%

×Draw30%

Celta de Vigo III33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AlondrasExpected goals in this matchCelta de Vigo III

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

1.02

Alondras

1.11

Celta de Vigo III

1.02

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 110 home / 66 away

1.25

creates per match

1.00

1.03

allows per match

0.98

creates per match

Alondras

1.25

Celta de Vigo III

1.00

allows per match

Alondras

1.03

Celta de Vigo III

0.98

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alondras+0.00on par

Celta de Vigo III+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alondras ↓

Celta de Vigo III →

0–012%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Alondras or draw

67%

Alondras or Celta de Vigo III

70%

Draw or Celta de Vigo III

63%

Winning margin

Alondras wins by 2+

15%

Celta de Vigo III wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Alondras 1+ goals

67%

Alondras 2+ goals

30%

Alondras 3+ goals

10%

Celta de Vigo III 1+ goals

64%

Celta de Vigo III 2+ goals

27%

Celta de Vigo III 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Alondras (draw refunded)

53%

Celta de Vigo III (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Alondras at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.03 · 110 matches

Celta de Vigo III away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.98 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Alondras attack 1.25 + Celta de Vigo III defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.11

Celta de Vigo III attack 1.00 + Alondras defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 37%?"

Alondras scores more

37%

level

30%

Celta de Vigo III scores more

33%

Alondras at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Alondras will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 1: Alondras 1–1 Celta de Vigo III

Alondras and Celta de Vigo III drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 on December 14, 2025.

The match was played at Campo do Morrazo in Cangas.

Alondras vs Celta de Vigo III — Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 1: Alondras 1–1 Celta de Vigo III