Alondras 0–4 CD Lugo B: Result & Stats

Alondras

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

CD Lugo B

4/26/2026

Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 32Campo do Morrazo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

Alondras39%

×Draw27%

CD Lugo B34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AlondrasExpected goals in this matchCD Lugo B

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.26

1.16

Alondras

1.26

CD Lugo B

1.16

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 110 home / 94 away

1.25

creates per match

1.28

1.03

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Alondras

1.25

CD Lugo B

1.28

allows per match

Alondras

1.03

CD Lugo B

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alondras+0.00on par

CD Lugo B+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alondras ↓

CD Lugo B →

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Alondras or draw

66%

Alondras or CD Lugo B

73%

Draw or CD Lugo B

61%

Winning margin

Alondras wins by 2+

17%

CD Lugo B wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Alondras 1+ goals

72%

Alondras 2+ goals

36%

Alondras 3+ goals

13%

CD Lugo B 1+ goals

69%

CD Lugo B 2+ goals

32%

CD Lugo B 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Alondras (draw refunded)

53%

CD Lugo B (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Alondras at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.03 · 110 matches

CD Lugo B away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.27 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Alondras attack 1.25 + CD Lugo B defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.26

CD Lugo B attack 1.28 + Alondras defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 39%?"

Alondras scores more

39%

level

27%

CD Lugo B scores more

34%

Alondras at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Alondras will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff