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Alondras vs Atlético Arnoia — Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Alondras
Alondras
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Atlético Arnoia
Atlético Arnoia
9/12/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 1Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 1Campo do Morrazo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Alondras57%
×Draw25%
Atlético Arnoia17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alondras
1.56
Atlético Arnoia
0.73

Alondras creates 114% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 16 away

creates per match

Alondras
1.25
Atlético Arnoia
0.44

allows per match

Alondras
1.03
Atlético Arnoia
1.88

finishing

Alondras+0.00on par
Atlético Arnoia+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alondras ↓

Atlético Arnoia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Alondras or draw
83%
Alondras or Atlético Arnoia
75%
Draw or Atlético Arnoia
43%

Winning margin

Alondras wins by 2+
30%
Atlético Arnoia wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Alondras 1+ goals
79%
Alondras 2+ goals
46%
Alondras 3+ goals
21%
Atlético Arnoia 1+ goals
52%
Atlético Arnoia 2+ goals
17%
Atlético Arnoia 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Alondras (draw refunded)
77%
Atlético Arnoia (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alondras at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.03 · 110 matches

Atlético Arnoia away — creates 0.44, concedes 1.88 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alondras attack 1.25 + Atlético Arnoia defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.56

Atlético Arnoia attack 0.44 + Alondras defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Alondras scores more
57%
level
25%
Atlético Arnoia scores more
17%

Alondras at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Alondras will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Alondras vs Atlético Arnoia

Alondras beat Atlético Arnoia 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 on September 12, 2021.

The match was played at Campo do Morrazo in Cangas.