Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Almudévar vs Valdefierro — Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 2019

Almudévar
Almudévar
CANC
00:00
Valdefierro
Valdefierro
3/22/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 17Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 33Estadio Virgen de la Corona

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Almudévar59%
×Draw24%
Valdefierro17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Almudévar
1.70
Valdefierro
0.78

Almudévar creates 118% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 31 away

creates per match

Almudévar
1.23
Valdefierro
0.45

allows per match

Almudévar
1.11
Valdefierro
2.16

finishing

Almudévar+0.00on par
Valdefierro+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Almudévar ↓

Valdefierro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Almudévar or draw
83%
Almudévar or Valdefierro
76%
Draw or Valdefierro
41%

Winning margin

Almudévar wins by 2+
33%
Valdefierro wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Almudévar 1+ goals
82%
Almudévar 2+ goals
51%
Almudévar 3+ goals
24%
Valdefierro 1+ goals
54%
Valdefierro 2+ goals
18%
Valdefierro 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Almudévar (draw refunded)
78%
Valdefierro (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Almudévar at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.11 · 96 matches

Valdefierro away — creates 0.45, concedes 2.16 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Almudévar attack 1.23 + Valdefierro defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 1.70

Valdefierro attack 0.45 + Almudévar defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Almudévar scores more
59%
level
24%
Valdefierro scores more
17%

Almudévar at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Almudévar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Almudévar host Valdefierro

March 22, 2020: Almudévar take on Valdefierro in Tercera División RFEF - Group 17. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Almudévar host Valdefierro at Estadio Virgen de la Corona.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.