Almudévar vs Belchite 97 — Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 2019
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 95+ matches
Almudévar41%
Belchite 9730%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Almudévar creates 22% more chances
Season form · 96 home / 95 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under62
- Over38
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No56
- Yes44
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Almudévar ↓
Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Almudévar at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.11 · 96 matches
Belchite 97 away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.18 · 95 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Almudévar attack 1.23 + Belchite 97 defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.21
Belchite 97 attack 0.87 + Almudévar defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.99
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 41%?"
Almudévar at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 41% does not mean "Almudévar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
Atlético Monzón
Cuarte
Calamocha
Épila
Caspe
Huesca II
Binéfar
La AlmuniaAlmudévar
CDJ Tamarite
Andorra CF
Illueca
RobresBelchite 97
Cariñena
UD Casetas
Utrillas
ZueraIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Almudévar host Belchite 97 on Saturday, 25 October 2025 at 15:00. The match is part of the Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 2019/2020 season.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 17: Almudévar 4–1 Belchite 97
Almudévar beat Belchite 97 4-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 on October 25, 2025.
The match was played at Estadio Virgen de la Corona in Almudévar.