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Almirante Brown vs Ciudad de Bolívar — Primera Nacional 2026

Almirante Brown
Almirante Brown
Preview
20:00
Ciudad de Bolívar
Ciudad de Bolívar
8/8/2026Primera NacionalPrimera Nacional · Round 24Estadio Fragata Presidente Sarmiento
33%
Ciudad de Bolívar
model favours
28%38%33%

82% of Almirante Brown’s matches stay under 2.5 goals

brightest fact of this match

0–0
likely score
83%
under 2.5 goals
25%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Almirante Brown28%
×Draw38%
Ciudad de Bolívar33%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Almirante Brown
0.66
Ciudad de Bolívar
0.74

Ciudad de Bolívar creates 12% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 10 away

creates per match

Almirante Brown
0.82
Ciudad de Bolívar
0.80

allows per match

Almirante Brown
0.68
Ciudad de Bolívar
0.50

finishing

Almirante Brown+0.00on par
Ciudad de Bolívar+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Under
  • Under83
  • Over17

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

75%No
  • No75
  • Yes25

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Almirante Brown ↓

Ciudad de Bolívar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–025%
0–118%
0–27%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–05%
2–14%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (25%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
75%25%1.5
41%59%2.5
17%83%3.5
5%95%4.5
1%99%

Double chance

Almirante Brown or draw
67%
Almirante Brown or Ciudad de Bolívar
62%
Draw or Ciudad de Bolívar
72%

Winning margin

Almirante Brown wins by 2+
8%
Ciudad de Bolívar wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Almirante Brown 1+ goals
48%
Almirante Brown 2+ goals
14%
Almirante Brown 3+ goals
3%
Ciudad de Bolívar 1+ goals
52%
Ciudad de Bolívar 2+ goals
17%
Ciudad de Bolívar 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Almirante Brown (draw refunded)
46%
Ciudad de Bolívar (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
13%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Almirante Brown at home — creates 0.82, concedes 0.68 · 28 matches

Ciudad de Bolívar away — creates 0.80, concedes 0.50 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Almirante Brown attack 0.82 + Ciudad de Bolívar defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.66

Ciudad de Bolívar attack 0.80 + Almirante Brown defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 33%?"

Almirante Brown scores more
28%
level
38%
Ciudad de Bolívar scores more
33%

Ciudad de Bolívar at 33% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 33% does not mean "Ciudad de Bolívar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in only 27% of Almirante Brown’s matches

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Brown
DWWWL
Bolívar
LWLLD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Almirante Brown host Ciudad de Bolívar

August 8, 2026: Almirante Brown take on Ciudad de Bolívar in Primera Nacional. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Almirante Brown host Ciudad de Bolívar at Estadio Fragata Presidente Sarmiento.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.