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Almeria vs Levante — Segunda División 2018

Almeria
Almeria
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Levante
Levante
3/29/2025Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 33UD Almería Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Almeria45%
×Draw27%
Levante28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Almeria
1.35
Levante
1.00

Almeria creates 35% more chances

Season form · 131 home / 65 away

creates per match

Almeria
1.79
Levante
1.06

allows per match

Almeria
0.95
Levante
0.91

finishing

Almeria+0.00on par
Levante+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Almeria ↓

Levante →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Almeria or draw
72%
Almeria or Levante
73%
Draw or Levante
55%

Winning margin

Almeria wins by 2+
21%
Levante wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Almeria 1+ goals
74%
Almeria 2+ goals
39%
Almeria 3+ goals
15%
Levante 1+ goals
63%
Levante 2+ goals
26%
Levante 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Almeria (draw refunded)
62%
Levante (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Almeria at home — creates 1.79, concedes 0.95 · 131 matches

Levante away — creates 1.06, concedes 0.91 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Almeria attack 1.79 + Levante defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.35

Levante attack 1.06 + Almeria defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Almeria scores more
45%
level
27%
Levante scores more
28%

Almeria at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Almeria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Almeria 1–0 Levante

Almeria beat Levante 1-0 in Segunda División on March 29, 2025.

The match was played at UD Almería Stadium in Almería.