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Almería II vs Toledo — Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs 2022

Almería II
Almería II
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Toledo
Toledo
6/16/2024Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offsTercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs · Promotion Play-offs - FinalsPower Horse Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Almería II48%
×Draw26%
Toledo26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Almería II
1.50
Toledo
1.04

Almería II creates 44% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

creates per match

Almería II
2.00
Toledo
0.75

allows per match

Almería II
1.33
Toledo
1.00

finishing

Almería II+0.00on par
Toledo+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Almería II ↓

Toledo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Almería II or draw
74%
Almería II or Toledo
74%
Draw or Toledo
52%

Winning margin

Almería II wins by 2+
24%
Toledo wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Almería II 1+ goals
78%
Almería II 2+ goals
44%
Almería II 3+ goals
19%
Toledo 1+ goals
65%
Toledo 2+ goals
28%
Toledo 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Almería II (draw refunded)
65%
Toledo (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Almería II at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Toledo away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Almería II attack 2.00 + Toledo defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Toledo attack 0.75 + Almería II defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Almería II scores more
48%
level
26%
Toledo scores more
26%

Almería II at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Almería II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Almería II vs Toledo

Almería II and Toledo drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs on June 16, 2024.

The match was played at Power Horse Stadium in Almería.