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Almería II vs Polideportivo Almería — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Almería II
Almería II
CANC
00:00
Polideportivo Almería
Polideportivo Almería
4/26/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 35Estadio de los Juegos Mediterráneos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Almería II65%
×Draw21%
Polideportivo Almería14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Almería II
1.98
Polideportivo Almería
0.78

Almería II creates 154% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 63 away

creates per match

Almería II
2.09
Polideportivo Almería
0.84

allows per match

Almería II
0.72
Polideportivo Almería
1.86

finishing

Almería II+0.00on par
Polideportivo Almería+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Almería II ↓

Polideportivo Almería →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Almería II or draw
86%
Almería II or Polideportivo Almería
79%
Draw or Polideportivo Almería
35%

Winning margin

Almería II wins by 2+
40%
Polideportivo Almería wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Almería II 1+ goals
86%
Almería II 2+ goals
59%
Almería II 3+ goals
31%
Polideportivo Almería 1+ goals
54%
Polideportivo Almería 2+ goals
18%
Polideportivo Almería 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Almería II (draw refunded)
82%
Polideportivo Almería (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Almería II at home — creates 2.09, concedes 0.72 · 76 matches

Polideportivo Almería away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.86 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Almería II attack 2.09 + Polideportivo Almería defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.98

Polideportivo Almería attack 0.84 + Almería II defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Almería II scores more
65%
level
21%
Polideportivo Almería scores more
14%

Almería II at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Almería II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Almería II host Polideportivo Almería

April 26, 2020: Almería II take on Polideportivo Almería in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Almería II host Polideportivo Almería at Estadio de los Juegos Mediterráneos.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.