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Almería II vs Melilla CD — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Almería II
Almería II
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Melilla CD
Melilla CD
9/14/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 4Estadio de los Juegos Mediterráneos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Almería II72%
×Draw17%
Melilla CD11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Almería II
2.35
Melilla CD
0.77

Almería II creates 205% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 28 away

creates per match

Almería II
2.09
Melilla CD
0.82

allows per match

Almería II
0.72
Melilla CD
2.61

finishing

Almería II+0.00on par
Melilla CD+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Almería II ↓

Melilla CD →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Almería II or draw
89%
Almería II or Melilla CD
83%
Draw or Melilla CD
28%

Winning margin

Almería II wins by 2+
49%
Melilla CD wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Almería II 1+ goals
90%
Almería II 2+ goals
68%
Almería II 3+ goals
41%
Melilla CD 1+ goals
54%
Melilla CD 2+ goals
18%
Melilla CD 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Almería II (draw refunded)
87%
Melilla CD (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Almería II at home — creates 2.09, concedes 0.72 · 76 matches

Melilla CD away — creates 0.82, concedes 2.61 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Almería II attack 2.09 + Melilla CD defence 2.61 → ÷2 → 2.35

Melilla CD attack 0.82 + Almería II defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Almería II scores more
72%
level
17%
Melilla CD scores more
11%

Almería II at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Almería II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Almería II vs Melilla CD

Almería II beat Melilla CD 4-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on September 14, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio de los Juegos Mediterráneos in Almería.