Almería II 0–3 Marbella: Result & Stats

Almería II

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Marbella

3/26/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 27Anexo Estadio de los Juegos del Mediterráneo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Almería II46%

×Draw26%

Marbella27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Almería IIExpected goals in this matchMarbella

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.05

Almería II

1.45

Marbella

1.05

Almería II creates 38% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 31 away

2.09

creates per match

1.39

0.72

allows per match

0.81

creates per match

Almería II

2.09

Marbella

1.39

allows per match

Almería II

0.72

Marbella

0.81

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Almería II+0.00on par

Marbella+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Almería II ↓

Marbella →

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Almería II or draw

73%

Almería II or Marbella

74%

Draw or Marbella

54%

Winning margin

Almería II wins by 2+

23%

Marbella wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Almería II 1+ goals

77%

Almería II 2+ goals

42%

Almería II 3+ goals

18%

Marbella 1+ goals

65%

Marbella 2+ goals

28%

Marbella 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Almería II (draw refunded)

63%

Marbella (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Almería II at home — creates 2.09, concedes 0.72 · 76 matches

Marbella away — creates 1.39, concedes 0.81 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Almería II attack 2.09 + Marbella defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.45

Marbella attack 1.39 + Almería II defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 46%?"

Almería II scores more

46%

level

26%

Marbella scores more

27%

Almería II at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Almería II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff