Almería II vs Málaga II: Preview & Prediction

Almería II

CANC

00:00

Málaga II

3/22/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 31Estadio de los Juegos Mediterráneos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Almería II50%

×Draw25%

Málaga II25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Almería IIExpected goals in this matchMálaga II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

1.04

Almería II

1.59

Málaga II

1.04

Almería II creates 53% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 92 away

2.09

creates per match

1.35

0.72

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

Almería II

2.09

Málaga II

1.35

allows per match

Almería II

0.72

Málaga II

1.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Almería II+0.00on par

Málaga II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Almería II ↓

Málaga II →

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Almería II or draw

75%

Almería II or Málaga II

75%

Draw or Málaga II

50%

Winning margin

Almería II wins by 2+

26%

Málaga II wins by 2+

Team goals

Almería II 1+ goals

80%

Almería II 2+ goals

47%

Almería II 3+ goals

21%

Málaga II 1+ goals

65%

Málaga II 2+ goals

28%

Málaga II 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Almería II (draw refunded)

67%

Málaga II (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Almería II at home — creates 2.09, concedes 0.72 · 76 matches

Málaga II away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.10 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Almería II attack 2.09 + Málaga II defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.59

Málaga II attack 1.35 + Almería II defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 50%?"

Almería II scores more

50%

level

25%

Málaga II scores more

25%

Almería II at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Almería II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Almería II host Málaga II

March 22, 2020: Almería II take on Málaga II in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Almería II host Málaga II at Estadio de los Juegos Mediterráneos.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.

Almería II vs Málaga II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Preview: Almería II host Málaga II