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Almería II vs Linares Deportivo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Almería II
Almería II
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Linares Deportivo
Linares Deportivo
9/28/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 6Anexo Estadio de los Juegos del Mediterráneo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Almería II38%
×Draw25%
Linares Deportivo37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Almería II
1.44
Linares Deportivo
1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 76 home / 14 away

creates per match

Almería II
2.09
Linares Deportivo
2.07

allows per match

Almería II
0.72
Linares Deportivo
0.79

finishing

Almería II+0.00on par
Linares Deportivo+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Almería II ↓

Linares Deportivo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Almería II or draw
63%
Almería II or Linares Deportivo
75%
Draw or Linares Deportivo
62%

Winning margin

Almería II wins by 2+
18%
Linares Deportivo wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Almería II 1+ goals
76%
Almería II 2+ goals
42%
Almería II 3+ goals
18%
Linares Deportivo 1+ goals
75%
Linares Deportivo 2+ goals
41%
Linares Deportivo 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Almería II (draw refunded)
51%
Linares Deportivo (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Almería II at home — creates 2.09, concedes 0.72 · 76 matches

Linares Deportivo away — creates 2.07, concedes 0.79 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Almería II attack 2.09 + Linares Deportivo defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 1.44

Linares Deportivo attack 2.07 + Almería II defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Almería II scores more
38%
level
25%
Linares Deportivo scores more
37%

Almería II at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Almería II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Almería II 0 – 1 Linares Deportivo

Linares Deportivo beat Almería II 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on September 28, 2019.

The match was played at Anexo Estadio de los Juegos del Mediterráneo in Almería.