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Almería II vs Huétor Vega — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Almería II
Almería II
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Huétor Vega
Huétor Vega
10/6/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 7Estadio de los Juegos Mediterráneos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Almería II57%
×Draw24%
Huétor Vega19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Almería II
1.73
Huétor Vega
0.88

Almería II creates 97% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 109 away

creates per match

Almería II
2.09
Huétor Vega
1.04

allows per match

Almería II
0.72
Huétor Vega
1.38

finishing

Almería II+0.00on par
Huétor Vega+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Almería II ↓

Huétor Vega →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Almería II or draw
81%
Almería II or Huétor Vega
76%
Draw or Huétor Vega
43%

Winning margin

Almería II wins by 2+
32%
Huétor Vega wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Almería II 1+ goals
82%
Almería II 2+ goals
52%
Almería II 3+ goals
25%
Huétor Vega 1+ goals
59%
Huétor Vega 2+ goals
22%
Huétor Vega 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Almería II (draw refunded)
75%
Huétor Vega (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Almería II at home — creates 2.09, concedes 0.72 · 76 matches

Huétor Vega away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.38 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Almería II attack 2.09 + Huétor Vega defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.73

Huétor Vega attack 1.04 + Almería II defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Almería II scores more
57%
level
24%
Huétor Vega scores more
19%

Almería II at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Almería II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Almería II vs Huétor Vega

Almería II beat Huétor Vega 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on October 6, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio de los Juegos Mediterráneos in Almería.