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Almería II vs Huétor Tájar — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Almería II
Almería II
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Huétor Tájar
Huétor Tájar
3/12/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 25Anexo Estadio de los Juegos del Mediterráneo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Almería II57%
×Draw23%
Huétor Tájar19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Almería II
1.77
Huétor Tájar
0.92

Almería II creates 92% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 109 away

creates per match

Almería II
2.09
Huétor Tájar
1.11

allows per match

Almería II
0.72
Huétor Tájar
1.45

finishing

Almería II+0.00on par
Huétor Tájar+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Almería II ↓

Huétor Tájar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Almería II or draw
81%
Almería II or Huétor Tájar
77%
Draw or Huétor Tájar
43%

Winning margin

Almería II wins by 2+
32%
Huétor Tájar wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Almería II 1+ goals
83%
Almería II 2+ goals
53%
Almería II 3+ goals
26%
Huétor Tájar 1+ goals
60%
Huétor Tájar 2+ goals
23%
Huétor Tájar 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Almería II (draw refunded)
75%
Huétor Tájar (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Almería II at home — creates 2.09, concedes 0.72 · 76 matches

Huétor Tájar away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.45 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Almería II attack 2.09 + Huétor Tájar defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.77

Huétor Tájar attack 1.11 + Almería II defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Almería II scores more
57%
level
23%
Huétor Tájar scores more
19%

Almería II at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Almería II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Almería II vs Huétor Tájar

Almería II beat Huétor Tájar 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on March 12, 2023.

The match was played at Anexo Estadio de los Juegos del Mediterráneo in Almería.