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Almere City II vs Willem II U21 — U21 Divisie 1 2020

Almere City II
Almere City II
FT
5 – 2
Willem II U21
Willem II U21
12/17/2022U21 Divisie 1U21 Divisie 1 · Fall Season - 13Sportpark Fanny Blankers-Koen Veld 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Almere City II55%
×Draw21%
Willem II U2124%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Almere City II
2.16
Willem II U21
1.39

Almere City II creates 55% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 24 away

creates per match

Almere City II
2.31
Willem II U21
1.46

allows per match

Almere City II
1.31
Willem II U21
2.00

finishing

Almere City II+0.00on par
Willem II U21+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Almere City II ↓

Willem II U21 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Almere City II or draw
76%
Almere City II or Willem II U21
79%
Draw or Willem II U21
45%

Winning margin

Almere City II wins by 2+
33%
Willem II U21 wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Almere City II 1+ goals
88%
Almere City II 2+ goals
63%
Almere City II 3+ goals
36%
Willem II U21 1+ goals
75%
Willem II U21 2+ goals
40%
Willem II U21 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Almere City II (draw refunded)
69%
Willem II U21 (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Almere City II at home — creates 2.31, concedes 1.31 · 29 matches

Willem II U21 away — creates 1.46, concedes 2.00 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Almere City II attack 2.31 + Willem II U21 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.16

Willem II U21 attack 1.46 + Almere City II defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Almere City II scores more
55%
level
21%
Willem II U21 scores more
24%

Almere City II at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Almere City II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Almere City II vs Willem II U21

Almere City II beat Willem II U21 5-2 in U21 Divisie 1 on December 17, 2022.

The match was played at Sportpark Fanny Blankers-Koen Veld 1 in Almere.