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Almere City II vs Sparta Rotterdam II — Tweede Divisie 2019

Almere City II
Almere City II
FT
3 – 4
HT: 2 – 1
Sparta Rotterdam II
Sparta Rotterdam II
12/14/2024Tweede DivisieTweede Divisie · Round 17Sportpark Fanny Bl Koen Veld 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Almere City II48%
×Draw21%
Sparta Rotterdam II31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Almere City II
2.15
Sparta Rotterdam II
1.70

Almere City II creates 26% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 102 away

creates per match

Almere City II
2.41
Sparta Rotterdam II
1.75

allows per match

Almere City II
1.65
Sparta Rotterdam II
1.89

finishing

Almere City II+0.00on par
Sparta Rotterdam II+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Almere City II ↓

Sparta Rotterdam II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Almere City II or draw
69%
Almere City II or Sparta Rotterdam II
79%
Draw or Sparta Rotterdam II
52%

Winning margin

Almere City II wins by 2+
28%
Sparta Rotterdam II wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Almere City II 1+ goals
88%
Almere City II 2+ goals
63%
Almere City II 3+ goals
36%
Sparta Rotterdam II 1+ goals
82%
Sparta Rotterdam II 2+ goals
51%
Sparta Rotterdam II 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Almere City II (draw refunded)
61%
Sparta Rotterdam II (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Almere City II at home — creates 2.41, concedes 1.65 · 51 matches

Sparta Rotterdam II away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.89 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Almere City II attack 2.41 + Sparta Rotterdam II defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 2.15

Sparta Rotterdam II attack 1.75 + Almere City II defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Almere City II scores more
48%
level
21%
Sparta Rotterdam II scores more
31%

Almere City II at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Almere City II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tweede Divisie: Almere City II 3–4 Sparta Rotterdam II

Sparta Rotterdam II beat Almere City II 4-3 in Tweede Divisie on December 14, 2024.

The match was played at Sportpark Fanny Bl Koen Veld 4 in Almere.