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Almere City II vs Noordwijk — Tweede Divisie 2019

Almere City II
Almere City II
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Noordwijk
Noordwijk
9/7/2024Tweede DivisieTweede Divisie · Round 4Yanmar Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Almere City II49%
×Draw22%
Noordwijk30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Almere City II
2.03
Noordwijk
1.55

Almere City II creates 31% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 85 away

creates per match

Almere City II
2.41
Noordwijk
1.46

allows per match

Almere City II
1.65
Noordwijk
1.65

finishing

Almere City II+0.00on par
Noordwijk+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Almere City II ↓

Noordwijk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Almere City II or draw
70%
Almere City II or Noordwijk
78%
Draw or Noordwijk
51%

Winning margin

Almere City II wins by 2+
28%
Noordwijk wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Almere City II 1+ goals
87%
Almere City II 2+ goals
60%
Almere City II 3+ goals
33%
Noordwijk 1+ goals
79%
Noordwijk 2+ goals
46%
Noordwijk 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Almere City II (draw refunded)
62%
Noordwijk (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Almere City II at home — creates 2.41, concedes 1.65 · 51 matches

Noordwijk away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.65 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Almere City II attack 2.41 + Noordwijk defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 2.03

Noordwijk attack 1.46 + Almere City II defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Almere City II scores more
49%
level
22%
Noordwijk scores more
30%

Almere City II at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Almere City II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Almere City II vs Noordwijk

Almere City II beat Noordwijk 4-1 in Tweede Divisie on September 7, 2024.

The match was played at Yanmar Stadion in Almere.