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Almere City II vs Koninklijke HFC — Tweede Divisie 2019

Almere City II
Almere City II
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Koninklijke HFC
Koninklijke HFC
12/16/2023Tweede DivisieTweede Divisie · Round 17Sportpark Fanny Bl Koen Veld 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Almere City II49%
×Draw22%
Koninklijke HFC29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Almere City II
1.99
Koninklijke HFC
1.50

Almere City II creates 33% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 99 away

creates per match

Almere City II
2.41
Koninklijke HFC
1.34

allows per match

Almere City II
1.65
Koninklijke HFC
1.57

finishing

Almere City II+0.00on par
Koninklijke HFC+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Almere City II ↓

Koninklijke HFC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Almere City II or draw
71%
Almere City II or Koninklijke HFC
78%
Draw or Koninklijke HFC
51%

Winning margin

Almere City II wins by 2+
28%
Koninklijke HFC wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Almere City II 1+ goals
86%
Almere City II 2+ goals
59%
Almere City II 3+ goals
32%
Koninklijke HFC 1+ goals
78%
Koninklijke HFC 2+ goals
44%
Koninklijke HFC 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Almere City II (draw refunded)
63%
Koninklijke HFC (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Almere City II at home — creates 2.41, concedes 1.65 · 51 matches

Koninklijke HFC away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.57 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Almere City II attack 2.41 + Koninklijke HFC defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.99

Koninklijke HFC attack 1.34 + Almere City II defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Almere City II scores more
49%
level
22%
Koninklijke HFC scores more
29%

Almere City II at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Almere City II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tweede Divisie: Almere City II 1–1 Koninklijke HFC

Almere City II and Koninklijke HFC drew 1-1 in Tweede Divisie on December 16, 2023.

The match was played at Sportpark Fanny Bl Koen Veld 4 in Almere.