Almere City FC 2–2 Vitesse: Result & Stats

Almere City FC

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Vitesse

10/10/2025

Eerste Divisie · Round 1Yanmar Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Almere City FC48%

×Draw23%

Vitesse29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Almere City FCExpected goals in this matchVitesse

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

1.33

Almere City FC

1.79

Vitesse

1.33

Almere City FC creates 35% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 38 away

1.75

creates per match

1.55

1.12

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

Almere City FC

1.75

Vitesse

1.55

allows per match

Almere City FC

1.12

Vitesse

1.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Almere City FC+0.00on par

Vitesse+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Almere City FC ↓

Vitesse →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Almere City FC or draw

71%

Almere City FC or Vitesse

77%

Draw or Vitesse

52%

Winning margin

Almere City FC wins by 2+

26%

Vitesse wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Almere City FC 1+ goals

83%

Almere City FC 2+ goals

53%

Almere City FC 3+ goals

26%

Vitesse 1+ goals

74%

Vitesse 2+ goals

38%

Vitesse 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Almere City FC (draw refunded)

63%

Vitesse (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Almere City FC at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.12 · 112 matches

Vitesse away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.82 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Almere City FC attack 1.75 + Vitesse defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.79

Vitesse attack 1.55 + Almere City FC defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Almere City FC scores more

48%

level

23%

Vitesse scores more

29%

Almere City FC at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Almere City FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff