Almere City FC 0–4 PSV Eindhoven: Result & Stats

Almere City FC

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

PSV Eindhoven

9/23/2023

Eredivisie · Round 6Yanmar Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Almere City FC17%

×Draw20%

PSV Eindhoven63%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Almere City FCExpected goals in this matchPSV Eindhoven

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.04

2.16

Almere City FC

1.04

PSV Eindhoven

2.16

PSV Eindhoven creates 108% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 133 away

0.92

creates per match

2.38

1.94

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Almere City FC

0.92

PSV Eindhoven

2.38

allows per match

Almere City FC

1.94

PSV Eindhoven

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Almere City FC+0.00on par

PSV Eindhoven+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Almere City FC ↓

PSV Eindhoven →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–19%

0–210%

0–37%

0–44%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–25%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Almere City FC or draw

37%

Almere City FC or PSV Eindhoven

80%

Draw or PSV Eindhoven

83%

Winning margin

Almere City FC wins by 2+

6%

PSV Eindhoven wins by 2+

39%

Team goals

Almere City FC 1+ goals

65%

Almere City FC 2+ goals

28%

Almere City FC 3+ goals

9%

PSV Eindhoven 1+ goals

88%

PSV Eindhoven 2+ goals

63%

PSV Eindhoven 3+ goals

36%

Draw no bet

Almere City FC (draw refunded)

22%

PSV Eindhoven (draw refunded)

78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Almere City FC at home — creates 0.92, concedes 1.94 · 36 matches

PSV Eindhoven away — creates 2.38, concedes 1.17 · 133 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Almere City FC attack 0.92 + PSV Eindhoven defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.04

PSV Eindhoven attack 2.38 + Almere City FC defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 2.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Almere City FC scores more

17%

level

20%

PSV Eindhoven scores more

63%

PSV Eindhoven at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "PSV Eindhoven will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff