Almere City FC 1–0 Jong Utrecht: Result & Stats

Almere City FC

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Jong Utrecht

D. van Bruggen 87'

4/3/2023

Eerste Divisie · Round 28Yanmar Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Almere City FC40%

×Draw22%

Jong Utrecht38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Almere City FCExpected goals in this matchJong Utrecht

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

1.73

Almere City FC

1.79

Jong Utrecht

1.73

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 7 away

2.16

creates per match

1.96

1.49

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Almere City FC

2.16

Jong Utrecht

1.96

allows per match

Almere City FC

1.49

Jong Utrecht

1.43

+0.70scores more than expected

finishing

-0.67scores less than expected

finishing

Almere City FC+0.70scores more

Jong Utrecht-0.67scores less

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Almere City FC ↓

Jong Utrecht →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Almere City FC or draw

62%

Almere City FC or Jong Utrecht

78%

Draw or Jong Utrecht

60%

Winning margin

Almere City FC wins by 2+

21%

Jong Utrecht wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Almere City FC 1+ goals

83%

Almere City FC 2+ goals

53%

Almere City FC 3+ goals

26%

Jong Utrecht 1+ goals

82%

Jong Utrecht 2+ goals

52%

Jong Utrecht 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Almere City FC (draw refunded)

52%

Jong Utrecht (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Almere City FC at home — creates 2.16, concedes 1.49 · 7 matches

Jong Utrecht away — creates 1.96, concedes 1.43 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Almere City FC attack 2.16 + Jong Utrecht defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.79

Jong Utrecht attack 1.96 + Almere City FC defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Almere City FC scores more

40%

level

22%

Jong Utrecht scores more

38%

Almere City FC at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Almere City FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

N. Bakker

Almere City FC · G

8.7

Match Events

39'

Anthony Limbombe

39'

Rocco Robert Shein

46'

S. Resink← J. Smeets

56'

K. Hansen← J. Hilterman

71'

T. Augustinus-Jensen← L. Edhart

71'

O. van Eldik← I. Jenner

74'

R. van La Parra← A. Limbombe

75'

I. Alhaft← Pascu

77'

Y. Ikeshita← R. Shein

77'

J. Rawlins← A. Boumenjal

84'

J. van de Haar← M. Rijks

87'

M. Corryn← L. Duijvestijn

87'

D. van Bruggen↳ Álvaro Peña

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AlmereJong

Overview

53%Possession47%

19Total Shots15

13Corners1

10Fouls11

Shots

19Total Shots15

3On Target7

11Off Target5

5Blocked3

11Inside Box8

8Outside Box7

Passing

53%Possession47%

399Total Passes369

297Accurate Passes278

74%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

7Saves2

Discipline

10Fouls11

1Yellow Cards1

5Offsides2