Almere City FC 2–3 Jong Ajax: Result & Stats

Almere City FC

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Jong Ajax

J. Hilterman 51'

Manel Royo 27'

A. Martha 78'

L. Lucca 37'

C. Rasmussen 20'

10/14/2022

Eerste Divisie · Round 11Yanmar Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Almere City FC54%

×Draw22%

Jong Ajax25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Almere City FCExpected goals in this matchJong Ajax

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.97

1.27

Almere City FC

1.97

Jong Ajax

1.27

Almere City FC creates 55% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 9 away

2.16

creates per match

1.05

1.49

allows per match

1.77

creates per match

Almere City FC

2.16

Jong Ajax

1.05

allows per match

Almere City FC

1.49

Jong Ajax

1.77

+0.70scores more than expected

finishing

-0.38scores less than expected

finishing

Almere City FC+0.70scores more

Jong Ajax-0.38scores less

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Almere City FC ↓

Jong Ajax →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Almere City FC or draw

75%

Almere City FC or Jong Ajax

78%

Draw or Jong Ajax

46%

Winning margin

Almere City FC wins by 2+

31%

Jong Ajax wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Almere City FC 1+ goals

86%

Almere City FC 2+ goals

58%

Almere City FC 3+ goals

31%

Jong Ajax 1+ goals

72%

Jong Ajax 2+ goals

36%

Jong Ajax 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Almere City FC (draw refunded)

69%

Jong Ajax (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Almere City FC at home — creates 2.16, concedes 1.49 · 7 matches

Jong Ajax away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.77 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Almere City FC attack 2.16 + Jong Ajax defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.97

Jong Ajax attack 1.05 + Almere City FC defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Almere City FC scores more

54%

level

22%

Jong Ajax scores more

25%

Almere City FC at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Almere City FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

K. Fitz-Jim

Jong Ajax · M

8.5

Match Events

20'

C. Rasmussen↳ K. Fitz-Jim

27'

Manel Royo↳ L. Duijvestijn

37'

51'

53'

61'

61'

65'

71'

I. Alhaft← A. Limbombe

75'

M. Milovanovic← S. Hansen

78'

A. Martha↳ K. Fitz-Jim

82'

B. van Hoeven← T. Poll

89'

Christian Kjelder Rasmussen

90+1'

M. Pouwels← Pascu

90'

P. Delgado← K. Hlynsson

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AlmereJong

Overview

53%Possession47%

20Total Shots8

5Corners4

9Fouls9

Shots

20Total Shots8

7On Target4

11Off Target1

2Blocked3

12Inside Box5

8Outside Box3

Passing

53%Possession47%

376Total Passes354

294Accurate Passes284

78%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

1Saves5

Discipline

9Fouls9

2Yellow Cards1

2Offsides3

Match Recap: Almere City FC vs Jong Ajax

Jong Ajax beat Almere City FC 3-2 in Eerste Divisie on October 14, 2022.

Goals: C. Rasmussen (20'), Manel Royo (27'), L. Lucca (37'), J. Hilterman (51'), A. Martha (78').

Almere City FC controlled possession (53%) and registered 20 shots to 8.

The match was played at Yanmar Stadion in Almere.

Almere City FC vs Jong Ajax — Eerste Divisie 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Almere City FC vs Jong Ajax