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Almere City FC vs Heracles — Eredivisie 2018

Almere City FC
Almere City FC
FT
0 – 5
HT: 0 – 1
Heracles
Heracles
11/26/2023EredivisieEredivisie · Round 13Yanmar Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Almere City FC41%
×Draw25%
Heracles34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Almere City FC
1.52
Heracles
1.36

Almere City FC creates 12% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 117 away

creates per match

Almere City FC
0.92
Heracles
0.79

allows per match

Almere City FC
1.94
Heracles
2.12

finishing

Almere City FC+0.00on par
Heracles+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Almere City FC ↓

Heracles →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Almere City FC or draw
66%
Almere City FC or Heracles
75%
Draw or Heracles
59%

Winning margin

Almere City FC wins by 2+
20%
Heracles wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Almere City FC 1+ goals
78%
Almere City FC 2+ goals
45%
Almere City FC 3+ goals
20%
Heracles 1+ goals
74%
Heracles 2+ goals
39%
Heracles 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Almere City FC (draw refunded)
55%
Heracles (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Almere City FC at home — creates 0.92, concedes 1.94 · 36 matches

Heracles away — creates 0.79, concedes 2.12 · 117 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Almere City FC attack 0.92 + Heracles defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.52

Heracles attack 0.79 + Almere City FC defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Almere City FC scores more
41%
level
25%
Heracles scores more
34%

Almere City FC at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Almere City FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Eredivisie: Almere City FC 0–5 Heracles

Heracles beat Almere City FC 5-0 in Eredivisie on November 26, 2023.

The match was played at Yanmar Stadion in Almere.