Almere City FC 0–1 Helmond Sport: Result & Stats

Almere City FC

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Helmond Sport

N. Makanza 5'

2/13/2026

Eerste Divisie · Round 27Yanmar Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Almere City FC44%

×Draw25%

Helmond Sport31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Almere City FCExpected goals in this matchHelmond Sport

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

1.30

Almere City FC

1.59

Helmond Sport

1.30

Almere City FC creates 22% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

1.99

creates per match

1.16

1.45

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

Almere City FC

1.99

Helmond Sport

1.16

allows per match

Almere City FC

1.45

Helmond Sport

1.19

+0.68scores more than expected

finishing

-0.33scores less than expected

finishing

Almere City FC+0.68scores more

Helmond Sport-0.33scores less

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Almere City FC ↓

Helmond Sport →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Almere City FC or draw

69%

Almere City FC or Helmond Sport

75%

Draw or Helmond Sport

56%

Winning margin

Almere City FC wins by 2+

22%

Helmond Sport wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Almere City FC 1+ goals

80%

Almere City FC 2+ goals

47%

Almere City FC 3+ goals

21%

Helmond Sport 1+ goals

73%

Helmond Sport 2+ goals

37%

Helmond Sport 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Almere City FC (draw refunded)

59%

Helmond Sport (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Almere City FC at home — creates 1.99, concedes 1.45 · 6 matches

Helmond Sport away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.19 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Almere City FC attack 1.99 + Helmond Sport defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.59

Helmond Sport attack 1.16 + Almere City FC defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Almere City FC scores more

44%

level

25%

Helmond Sport scores more

31%

Almere City FC at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Almere City FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

M. de Haan

Almere City FC · M

7.6

Match Events

5'

N. Makanza

17'

Olivier De Nijs

46'

N. Takahashi← T. Bijleveld

46'

B. Burgering← E. Cornelisse

46'

J. Kalisvaart← O. de Nijs

47'

Flor Van Den Eynden

50'

Noah Makanza

60'

L. Daneels← D. Geerts

62'

Amoah Foah-Sam

73'

L. Semic← F. Van Den Eynden

75'

B. Reith← J. Rijkhoff

75'

J. Jacobs← A. Sam

79'

Amir Absalem

82'

R. Providence← J. Lawrence

82'

J. Ogenia← A. Absalem

82'

O. Zimuangana← A. Leipold

88'

J. Geerts← L. Bajrami

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AlmereHelmond

Overview

70%Possession30%

15Total Shots7

10Corners1

12Fouls16

Shots

15Total Shots7

1On Target3

8Off Target3

6Blocked1

9Inside Box4

6Outside Box3

Passing

70%Possession30%

582Total Passes264

495Accurate Passes178

85%Pass Accuracy67%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

12Fouls16

2Yellow Cards3

2Offsides1