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Almeboda Linneryd vs Räppe — Division 2 - Södra Götaland 2019

Almeboda Linneryd
Almeboda Linneryd
FT
0 – 1
Räppe
Räppe
5/3/2019Division 2 - Södra GötalandDivision 2 - Södra Götaland · Round 5Linneryds IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Almeboda Linneryd30%
×Draw23%
Räppe46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Almeboda Linneryd
1.36
Räppe
1.74

Räppe creates 28% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 92 away

creates per match

Almeboda Linneryd
1.20
Räppe
1.58

allows per match

Almeboda Linneryd
1.90
Räppe
1.53

finishing

Almeboda Linneryd+0.00on par
Räppe+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Almeboda Linneryd ↓

Räppe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Almeboda Linneryd or draw
54%
Almeboda Linneryd or Räppe
77%
Draw or Räppe
70%

Winning margin

Almeboda Linneryd wins by 2+
13%
Räppe wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Almeboda Linneryd 1+ goals
74%
Almeboda Linneryd 2+ goals
39%
Almeboda Linneryd 3+ goals
16%
Räppe 1+ goals
82%
Räppe 2+ goals
52%
Räppe 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Almeboda Linneryd (draw refunded)
39%
Räppe (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Almeboda Linneryd at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.90 · 20 matches

Räppe away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.53 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Almeboda Linneryd attack 1.20 + Räppe defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.36

Räppe attack 1.58 + Almeboda Linneryd defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Almeboda Linneryd scores more
30%
level
23%
Räppe scores more
46%

Räppe at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Räppe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division 2 - Södra Götaland: Almeboda Linneryd 0–1 Räppe

Räppe beat Almeboda Linneryd 1-0 in Division 2 - Södra Götaland on May 3, 2019.

The match was played at Linneryds IP in Linneryd.