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Almazán vs Unami — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Almazán
Almazán
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Unami
Unami
2/18/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 21Campo Municipal La Arboleda 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Almazán67%
×Draw21%
Unami12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Almazán
1.94
Unami
0.68

Almazán creates 185% more chances

Season form · 114 home / 15 away

creates per match

Almazán
1.61
Unami
0.33

allows per match

Almazán
1.02
Unami
2.27

finishing

Almazán+0.00on par
Unami+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Almazán ↓

Unami →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Almazán or draw
88%
Almazán or Unami
79%
Draw or Unami
33%

Winning margin

Almazán wins by 2+
41%
Unami wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Almazán 1+ goals
86%
Almazán 2+ goals
58%
Almazán 3+ goals
30%
Unami 1+ goals
49%
Unami 2+ goals
15%
Unami 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Almazán (draw refunded)
85%
Unami (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Almazán at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.02 · 114 matches

Unami away — creates 0.33, concedes 2.27 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Almazán attack 1.61 + Unami defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 1.94

Unami attack 0.33 + Almazán defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Almazán scores more
67%
level
21%
Unami scores more
12%

Almazán at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Almazán will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8: Almazán 3–0 Unami

Almazán beat Unami 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on February 18, 2023.

The match was played at Campo Municipal La Arboleda 2 in Almazán.