Almazán 0–1 Salamanca UDS: Result & Stats

Almazán

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Salamanca UDS

3/23/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 26Campo Municipal La Arboleda 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Almazán29%

×Draw26%

Salamanca UDS44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AlmazánExpected goals in this matchSalamanca UDS

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

1.42

Almazán

1.10

Salamanca UDS

1.42

Salamanca UDS creates 29% more chances

Season form · 114 home / 17 away

1.61

creates per match

1.82

1.02

allows per match

0.59

creates per match

Almazán

1.61

Salamanca UDS

1.82

allows per match

Almazán

1.02

Salamanca UDS

0.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Almazán+0.00on par

Salamanca UDS+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Almazán ↓

Salamanca UDS →

0–08%

0–111%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Almazán or draw

56%

Almazán or Salamanca UDS

74%

Draw or Salamanca UDS

71%

Winning margin

Almazán wins by 2+

11%

Salamanca UDS wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Almazán 1+ goals

67%

Almazán 2+ goals

30%

Almazán 3+ goals

10%

Salamanca UDS 1+ goals

76%

Salamanca UDS 2+ goals

41%

Salamanca UDS 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Almazán (draw refunded)

40%

Salamanca UDS (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Almazán at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.02 · 114 matches

Salamanca UDS away — creates 1.82, concedes 0.59 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Almazán attack 1.61 + Salamanca UDS defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 1.10

Salamanca UDS attack 1.82 + Almazán defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 44%?"

Almazán scores more

29%

level

26%

Salamanca UDS scores more

44%

Salamanca UDS at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Salamanca UDS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff