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Almazán vs Salamanca II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Almazán
Almazán
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Salamanca II
Salamanca II
6/12/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 2nd Phase - 11Estadio Municipal de la Arboleda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Almazán48%
×Draw26%
Salamanca II26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Almazán
1.48
Salamanca II
1.01

Almazán creates 47% more chances

Season form · 114 home / 61 away

creates per match

Almazán
1.61
Salamanca II
1.00

allows per match

Almazán
1.02
Salamanca II
1.34

finishing

Almazán+0.00on par
Salamanca II+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Almazán ↓

Salamanca II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Almazán or draw
74%
Almazán or Salamanca II
74%
Draw or Salamanca II
52%

Winning margin

Almazán wins by 2+
24%
Salamanca II wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Almazán 1+ goals
77%
Almazán 2+ goals
43%
Almazán 3+ goals
19%
Salamanca II 1+ goals
64%
Salamanca II 2+ goals
27%
Salamanca II 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Almazán (draw refunded)
65%
Salamanca II (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Almazán at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.02 · 114 matches

Salamanca II away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.34 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Almazán attack 1.61 + Salamanca II defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.48

Salamanca II attack 1.00 + Almazán defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Almazán scores more
48%
level
26%
Salamanca II scores more
26%

Almazán at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Almazán will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8: Almazán 2–1 Salamanca II

Almazán beat Salamanca II 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on June 12, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de la Arboleda in Almazán.