Almazán 3–2 Real Ávila: Result & Stats

Almazán

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Real Ávila

1/23/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 20Estadio Municipal de la Arboleda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Almazán40%

×Draw28%

Real Ávila32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AlmazánExpected goals in this matchReal Ávila

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.26

1.08

Almazán

1.26

Real Ávila

1.08

Almazán creates 17% more chances

Season form · 114 home / 76 away

1.61

creates per match

1.14

1.02

allows per match

0.91

creates per match

Almazán

1.61

Real Ávila

1.14

allows per match

Almazán

1.02

Real Ávila

0.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Almazán+0.00on par

Real Ávila+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Almazán ↓

Real Ávila →

0–010%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Almazán or draw

68%

Almazán or Real Ávila

72%

Draw or Real Ávila

60%

Winning margin

Almazán wins by 2+

18%

Real Ávila wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Almazán 1+ goals

72%

Almazán 2+ goals

36%

Almazán 3+ goals

13%

Real Ávila 1+ goals

66%

Real Ávila 2+ goals

29%

Real Ávila 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Almazán (draw refunded)

56%

Real Ávila (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Almazán at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.02 · 114 matches

Real Ávila away — creates 1.14, concedes 0.91 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Almazán attack 1.61 + Real Ávila defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.26

Real Ávila attack 1.14 + Almazán defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 40%?"

Almazán scores more

40%

level

28%

Real Ávila scores more

32%

Almazán at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Almazán will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff