Almazán 4–2 Peñaranda: Result & Stats

Almazán

4 – 2

HT: 2 – 0

Peñaranda

5/30/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 2nd Phase - 9Estadio Municipal de la Arboleda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Almazán61%

×Draw22%

Peñaranda17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AlmazánExpected goals in this matchPeñaranda

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.87

0.85

Almazán

1.87

Peñaranda

0.85

Almazán creates 120% more chances

Season form · 114 home / 16 away

1.61

creates per match

0.69

1.02

allows per match

2.13

creates per match

Almazán

1.61

Peñaranda

0.69

allows per match

Almazán

1.02

Peñaranda

2.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Almazán+0.00on par

Peñaranda+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Almazán ↓

Peñaranda →

0–07%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–012%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Almazán or draw

83%

Almazán or Peñaranda

78%

Draw or Peñaranda

39%

Winning margin

Almazán wins by 2+

36%

Peñaranda wins by 2+

Team goals

Almazán 1+ goals

85%

Almazán 2+ goals

56%

Almazán 3+ goals

29%

Peñaranda 1+ goals

57%

Peñaranda 2+ goals

21%

Peñaranda 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Almazán (draw refunded)

79%

Peñaranda (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Almazán at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.02 · 114 matches

Peñaranda away — creates 0.69, concedes 2.13 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Almazán attack 1.61 + Peñaranda defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.87

Peñaranda attack 0.69 + Almazán defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 61%?"

Almazán scores more

61%

level

22%

Peñaranda scores more

17%

Almazán at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Almazán will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff