Almazán 0–0 Palencia CF: Result & Stats

Almazán

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Palencia CF

2/2/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 22Campo Municipal La Arboleda 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Almazán47%

×Draw27%

Palencia CF26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AlmazánExpected goals in this matchPalencia CF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

0.98

Almazán

1.41

Palencia CF

0.98

Almazán creates 44% more chances

Season form · 114 home / 84 away

1.61

creates per match

0.93

1.02

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Almazán

1.61

Palencia CF

0.93

allows per match

Almazán

1.02

Palencia CF

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Almazán+0.00on par

Palencia CF+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Almazán ↓

Palencia CF →

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Almazán or draw

74%

Almazán or Palencia CF

73%

Draw or Palencia CF

53%

Winning margin

Almazán wins by 2+

23%

Palencia CF wins by 2+

Team goals

Almazán 1+ goals

76%

Almazán 2+ goals

41%

Almazán 3+ goals

17%

Palencia CF 1+ goals

62%

Palencia CF 2+ goals

26%

Palencia CF 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Almazán (draw refunded)

64%

Palencia CF (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Almazán at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.02 · 114 matches

Palencia CF away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.20 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Almazán attack 1.61 + Palencia CF defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.41

Palencia CF attack 0.93 + Almazán defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 47%?"

Almazán scores more

47%

level

27%

Palencia CF scores more

26%

Almazán at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Almazán will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff