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Almazán vs Laguna de Duero — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Almazán
Almazán
FT
5 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Laguna de Duero
Laguna de Duero
2/25/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 22Campo Municipal La Arboleda 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Almazán63%
×Draw21%
Laguna de Duero16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Almazán
2.00
Laguna de Duero
0.91

Almazán creates 120% more chances

Season form · 114 home / 35 away

creates per match

Almazán
1.61
Laguna de Duero
0.80

allows per match

Almazán
1.02
Laguna de Duero
2.40

finishing

Almazán+0.00on par
Laguna de Duero+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Almazán ↓

Laguna de Duero →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Almazán or draw
84%
Almazán or Laguna de Duero
79%
Draw or Laguna de Duero
37%

Winning margin

Almazán wins by 2+
38%
Laguna de Duero wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Almazán 1+ goals
86%
Almazán 2+ goals
59%
Almazán 3+ goals
32%
Laguna de Duero 1+ goals
60%
Laguna de Duero 2+ goals
23%
Laguna de Duero 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Almazán (draw refunded)
79%
Laguna de Duero (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Almazán at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.02 · 114 matches

Laguna de Duero away — creates 0.80, concedes 2.40 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Almazán attack 1.61 + Laguna de Duero defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 2.00

Laguna de Duero attack 0.80 + Almazán defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Almazán scores more
63%
level
21%
Laguna de Duero scores more
16%

Almazán at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Almazán will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8: Almazán 5–0 Laguna de Duero

Almazán beat Laguna de Duero 5-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on February 25, 2024.

The match was played at Campo Municipal La Arboleda 2 in Almazán.