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Almazán vs La Bañeza — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Almazán
Almazán
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
La Bañeza
La Bañeza
Edipo Rodríguez 20', 3' (pen)
Moreno 88'
9/22/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 6Estadio Municipal de la Arboleda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Almazán56%
×Draw24%
La Bañeza19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Almazán
1.65
La Bañeza
0.85

Almazán creates 94% more chances

Season form · 114 home / 31 away

creates per match

Almazán
1.61
La Bañeza
0.68

allows per match

Almazán
1.02
La Bañeza
1.68

finishing

Almazán+0.00on par
La Bañeza+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Almazán ↓

La Bañeza →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Almazán or draw
81%
Almazán or La Bañeza
76%
Draw or La Bañeza
44%

Winning margin

Almazán wins by 2+
31%
La Bañeza wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Almazán 1+ goals
81%
Almazán 2+ goals
49%
Almazán 3+ goals
23%
La Bañeza 1+ goals
57%
La Bañeza 2+ goals
21%
La Bañeza 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Almazán (draw refunded)
74%
La Bañeza (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Almazán at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.02 · 114 matches

La Bañeza away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.68 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Almazán attack 1.61 + La Bañeza defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.65

La Bañeza attack 0.68 + Almazán defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Almazán scores more
56%
level
24%
La Bañeza scores more
19%

Almazán at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Almazán will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'
Edipo RodríguezPenalty
20'
Edipo Rodríguez
45'
Moreno← Lorento
55'
Rony← Aitor García
68'
Jesús Sánchez← Alberto Plaza
71'
Viti← Sampedro
75'
Sergio Santa Cruz← Edipo Rodríguez
81'
Checa← Gonzalo
88'
Moreno
Almazán
La
Camilo
Camilo
Garrido
Garrido
Pablo González
González
Mateo
Mateo
Sampedro
▼
Sampedro
Aitor García
▼
García
Hugo Murciego
Murciego
Lorento
▼
Lorento
Ricardo
Ricardo
Álvaro de Lera
Lera
David Borge
Borge
Alberto Martínez
Martínez
Gonzalo
▼
Gonzalo
Íñigo Miranda
Miranda
J. Junyent
Junyent
Edipo Rodríguez
⚽2
▼
Rodríguez
Raúl Gil
Gil
Alberto Plaza
▼
Plaza
Javier García
García
Dani Martínez
Martínez
Diego Antón
Antón
Fatah Allah
Allah
Diego Rojas
Manager: Diego Rojas
68'▲Jesús Sánchez←▼Alberto Plaza
75'▲Sergio Santa Cruz←▼Edipo Rodríguez
81'▲Checa←▼Gonzalo

Almazán substitutes

SánchezCruzCheca
José Román
Manager: José Román
45'▲Moreno←▼Lorento
55'▲Rony←▼Aitor García
71'▲Viti←▼Sampedro

La Bañeza substitutes

MorenoRonyViti

Almazán 2 – 1 La Bañeza

Almazán beat La Bañeza 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on September 22, 2019.

Goals: Edipo Rodríguez (3' pen, 20'), Moreno (88').

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de la Arboleda in Almazán.