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Almazán vs Colegios Diocesanos — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Almazán
Almazán
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Colegios Diocesanos
Colegios Diocesanos
5/5/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 33Campo Municipal La Arboleda 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Almazán57%
×Draw25%
Colegios Diocesanos18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Almazán
1.60
Colegios Diocesanos
0.79

Almazán creates 103% more chances

Season form · 114 home / 66 away

creates per match

Almazán
1.61
Colegios Diocesanos
0.56

allows per match

Almazán
1.02
Colegios Diocesanos
1.58

finishing

Almazán+0.00on par
Colegios Diocesanos+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Almazán ↓

Colegios Diocesanos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Almazán or draw
82%
Almazán or Colegios Diocesanos
75%
Draw or Colegios Diocesanos
43%

Winning margin

Almazán wins by 2+
30%
Colegios Diocesanos wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Almazán 1+ goals
80%
Almazán 2+ goals
47%
Almazán 3+ goals
22%
Colegios Diocesanos 1+ goals
55%
Colegios Diocesanos 2+ goals
19%
Colegios Diocesanos 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Almazán (draw refunded)
75%
Colegios Diocesanos (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Almazán at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.02 · 114 matches

Colegios Diocesanos away — creates 0.56, concedes 1.58 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Almazán attack 1.61 + Colegios Diocesanos defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.60

Colegios Diocesanos attack 0.56 + Almazán defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Almazán scores more
57%
level
25%
Colegios Diocesanos scores more
18%

Almazán at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Almazán will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Almazán 1 – 1 Colegios Diocesanos

Almazán and Colegios Diocesanos drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on May 5, 2024.

The match was played at Campo Municipal La Arboleda 2 in Almazán.