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Almazán vs Burgos Promesas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Almazán
Almazán
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Burgos Promesas
Burgos Promesas
4/26/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 35Campo Municipal La Arboleda 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Almazán42%
×Draw28%
Burgos Promesas30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Almazán
1.27
Burgos Promesas
1.02

Almazán creates 25% more chances

Season form · 114 home / 63 away

creates per match

Almazán
1.61
Burgos Promesas
1.02

allows per match

Almazán
1.02
Burgos Promesas
0.94

finishing

Almazán+0.00on par
Burgos Promesas+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Almazán ↓

Burgos Promesas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Almazán or draw
70%
Almazán or Burgos Promesas
72%
Draw or Burgos Promesas
58%

Winning margin

Almazán wins by 2+
19%
Burgos Promesas wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Almazán 1+ goals
72%
Almazán 2+ goals
36%
Almazán 3+ goals
14%
Burgos Promesas 1+ goals
64%
Burgos Promesas 2+ goals
27%
Burgos Promesas 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Almazán (draw refunded)
59%
Burgos Promesas (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Almazán at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.02 · 114 matches

Burgos Promesas away — creates 1.02, concedes 0.94 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Almazán attack 1.61 + Burgos Promesas defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.27

Burgos Promesas attack 1.02 + Almazán defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Almazán scores more
42%
level
28%
Burgos Promesas scores more
30%

Almazán at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Almazán will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Almazán vs Burgos Promesas

Burgos Promesas beat Almazán 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on April 26, 2025.

The match was played at Campo Municipal La Arboleda 2 in Almazán.