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Almazán vs Becerril Campos — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Almazán
Almazán
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Becerril Campos
Becerril Campos
9/21/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 3Campo Municipal La Arboleda 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 97+ matches

Almazán51%
×Draw25%
Becerril Campos24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Almazán
1.60
Becerril Campos
1.02

Almazán creates 57% more chances

Season form · 114 home / 97 away

creates per match

Almazán
1.61
Becerril Campos
1.02

allows per match

Almazán
1.02
Becerril Campos
1.58

finishing

Almazán+0.00on par
Becerril Campos+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Almazán ↓

Becerril Campos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Almazán or draw
76%
Almazán or Becerril Campos
75%
Draw or Becerril Campos
49%

Winning margin

Almazán wins by 2+
27%
Becerril Campos wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Almazán 1+ goals
80%
Almazán 2+ goals
47%
Almazán 3+ goals
22%
Becerril Campos 1+ goals
64%
Becerril Campos 2+ goals
27%
Becerril Campos 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Almazán (draw refunded)
68%
Becerril Campos (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Almazán at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.02 · 114 matches

Becerril Campos away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.58 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Almazán attack 1.61 + Becerril Campos defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.60

Becerril Campos attack 1.02 + Almazán defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Almazán scores more
51%
level
25%
Becerril Campos scores more
24%

Almazán at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Almazán will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Almazán vs Becerril Campos

Almazán and Becerril Campos drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on September 21, 2025.

The match was played at Campo Municipal La Arboleda 2 in Almazán.