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Almansa vs Pedroñeras — Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 2019

Almansa
Almansa
FT
4 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Pedroñeras
Pedroñeras
5/2/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 18Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · Group 18 - 2nd Phase - 5Polideportivo Municipal Paco Simón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Almansa41%
×Draw27%
Pedroñeras32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Almansa
1.37
Pedroñeras
1.18

Almansa creates 16% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 62 away

creates per match

Almansa
1.18
Pedroñeras
0.84

allows per match

Almansa
1.52
Pedroñeras
1.56

finishing

Almansa+0.00on par
Pedroñeras+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Almansa ↓

Pedroñeras →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Almansa or draw
68%
Almansa or Pedroñeras
73%
Draw or Pedroñeras
59%

Winning margin

Almansa wins by 2+
19%
Pedroñeras wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Almansa 1+ goals
75%
Almansa 2+ goals
40%
Almansa 3+ goals
16%
Pedroñeras 1+ goals
69%
Pedroñeras 2+ goals
33%
Pedroñeras 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Almansa (draw refunded)
56%
Pedroñeras (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Almansa at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.52 · 44 matches

Pedroñeras away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.56 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Almansa attack 1.18 + Pedroñeras defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.37

Pedroñeras attack 0.84 + Almansa defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Almansa scores more
41%
level
27%
Pedroñeras scores more
32%

Almansa at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Almansa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Almansa vs Pedroñeras

Almansa beat Pedroñeras 4-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 on May 2, 2021.

The match was played at Polideportivo Municipal Paco Simón in Almansa.