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Almansa vs Madridejos — Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 2019

Almansa
Almansa
CANC
00:00
Madridejos
Madridejos
4/19/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 18Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · Group 18 - 34Polideportivo Municipal Paco Simón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Almansa46%
×Draw26%
Madridejos28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Almansa
1.48
Madridejos
1.10

Almansa creates 35% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 29 away

creates per match

Almansa
1.18
Madridejos
0.69

allows per match

Almansa
1.52
Madridejos
1.79

finishing

Almansa+0.00on par
Madridejos+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Almansa ↓

Madridejos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Almansa or draw
72%
Almansa or Madridejos
74%
Draw or Madridejos
54%

Winning margin

Almansa wins by 2+
23%
Madridejos wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Almansa 1+ goals
77%
Almansa 2+ goals
43%
Almansa 3+ goals
19%
Madridejos 1+ goals
67%
Madridejos 2+ goals
30%
Madridejos 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Almansa (draw refunded)
62%
Madridejos (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Almansa at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.52 · 44 matches

Madridejos away — creates 0.69, concedes 1.79 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Almansa attack 1.18 + Madridejos defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.48

Madridejos attack 0.69 + Almansa defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Almansa scores more
46%
level
26%
Madridejos scores more
28%

Almansa at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Almansa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Almansa face Madridejos (Tercera División RFEF - Group 18)

Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 returns with Almansa hosting Madridejos. Match starts April 19, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Almansa host Madridejos at Polideportivo Municipal Paco Simón.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.