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Almansa vs Hogar Alcarreño — Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 2019

Almansa
Almansa
FT
3 – 2
HT: 3 – 1
Hogar Alcarreño
Hogar Alcarreño
3/27/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 18Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · Group 18 - 30Polideportivo Municipal Paco Simón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Almansa65%
×Draw19%
Hogar Alcarreño16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Almansa
2.33
Hogar Alcarreño
1.08

Almansa creates 116% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 17 away

creates per match

Almansa
1.18
Hogar Alcarreño
0.65

allows per match

Almansa
1.52
Hogar Alcarreño
3.47

finishing

Almansa+0.00on par
Hogar Alcarreño+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Almansa ↓

Hogar Alcarreño →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Almansa or draw
84%
Almansa or Hogar Alcarreño
81%
Draw or Hogar Alcarreño
35%

Winning margin

Almansa wins by 2+
42%
Hogar Alcarreño wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Almansa 1+ goals
90%
Almansa 2+ goals
67%
Almansa 3+ goals
41%
Hogar Alcarreño 1+ goals
66%
Hogar Alcarreño 2+ goals
29%
Hogar Alcarreño 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Almansa (draw refunded)
80%
Hogar Alcarreño (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Almansa at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.52 · 44 matches

Hogar Alcarreño away — creates 0.65, concedes 3.47 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Almansa attack 1.18 + Hogar Alcarreño defence 3.47 → ÷2 → 2.33

Hogar Alcarreño attack 0.65 + Almansa defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Almansa scores more
65%
level
19%
Hogar Alcarreño scores more
16%

Almansa at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Almansa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 18: Almansa 3–2 Hogar Alcarreño

Almansa beat Hogar Alcarreño 3-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 on March 27, 2022.

The match was played at Polideportivo Municipal Paco Simón in Almansa.