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Almansa vs Atlético Ibañés — Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 2019

Almansa
Almansa
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Atlético Ibañés
Atlético Ibañés
10/20/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 18Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · Group 18 - 10Polideportivo Municipal Paco Simón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Almansa34%
×Draw27%
Atlético Ibañés39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Almansa
1.17
Atlético Ibañés
1.29

Atlético Ibañés creates 10% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 30 away

creates per match

Almansa
1.18
Atlético Ibañés
1.07

allows per match

Almansa
1.52
Atlético Ibañés
1.17

finishing

Almansa+0.00on par
Atlético Ibañés+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Almansa ↓

Atlético Ibañés →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Almansa or draw
61%
Almansa or Atlético Ibañés
73%
Draw or Atlético Ibañés
66%

Winning margin

Almansa wins by 2+
14%
Atlético Ibañés wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Almansa 1+ goals
69%
Almansa 2+ goals
33%
Almansa 3+ goals
11%
Atlético Ibañés 1+ goals
72%
Atlético Ibañés 2+ goals
37%
Atlético Ibañés 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Almansa (draw refunded)
46%
Atlético Ibañés (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Almansa at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.52 · 44 matches

Atlético Ibañés away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.17 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Almansa attack 1.18 + Atlético Ibañés defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.17

Atlético Ibañés attack 1.07 + Almansa defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Almansa scores more
34%
level
27%
Atlético Ibañés scores more
39%

Atlético Ibañés at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Atlético Ibañés will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Almansa 1 – 1 Atlético Ibañés

Almansa and Atlético Ibañés drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 on October 20, 2019.

The match was played at Polideportivo Municipal Paco Simón in Almansa.