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Almansa vs Albacete II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 2019

Almansa
Almansa
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Albacete II
Albacete II
10/17/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 18Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · Group 18 - 1Polideportivo Municipal Paco Simón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Almansa30%
×Draw26%
Albacete II44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Almansa
1.14
Albacete II
1.45

Albacete II creates 27% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 96 away

creates per match

Almansa
1.18
Albacete II
1.38

allows per match

Almansa
1.52
Albacete II
1.09

finishing

Almansa+0.00on par
Albacete II+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Almansa ↓

Albacete II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Almansa or draw
56%
Almansa or Albacete II
74%
Draw or Albacete II
70%

Winning margin

Almansa wins by 2+
12%
Albacete II wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Almansa 1+ goals
68%
Almansa 2+ goals
32%
Almansa 3+ goals
11%
Albacete II 1+ goals
77%
Albacete II 2+ goals
42%
Albacete II 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Almansa (draw refunded)
40%
Albacete II (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Almansa at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.52 · 44 matches

Albacete II away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.09 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Almansa attack 1.18 + Albacete II defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.14

Albacete II attack 1.38 + Almansa defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Almansa scores more
30%
level
26%
Albacete II scores more
44%

Albacete II at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Albacete II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 18: Almansa 0–3 Albacete II

Albacete II beat Almansa 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 on October 17, 2020.

The match was played at Polideportivo Municipal Paco Simón in Almansa.