Almahalla 1–1 Alittihad Misurata: Result & Stats

Almahalla

FT

1 – 1

Alittihad Misurata

12/15/2021

Premier League · Round 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Almahalla36%

×Draw30%

Alittihad Misurata34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AlmahallaExpected goals in this matchAlittihad Misurata

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.09

1.04

Almahalla

1.09

Alittihad Misurata

1.04

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 28 home / 63 away

1.04

creates per match

0.84

1.25

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Almahalla

1.04

Alittihad Misurata

0.84

allows per match

Almahalla

1.25

Alittihad Misurata

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Almahalla+0.00on par

Alittihad Misurata+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Almahalla ↓

Alittihad Misurata →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Almahalla or draw

66%

Almahalla or Alittihad Misurata

70%

Draw or Alittihad Misurata

64%

Winning margin

Almahalla wins by 2+

15%

Alittihad Misurata wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Almahalla 1+ goals

66%

Almahalla 2+ goals

30%

Almahalla 3+ goals

10%

Alittihad Misurata 1+ goals

65%

Alittihad Misurata 2+ goals

28%

Alittihad Misurata 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Almahalla (draw refunded)

52%

Alittihad Misurata (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Almahalla at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.25 · 28 matches

Alittihad Misurata away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.14 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Almahalla attack 1.04 + Alittihad Misurata defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.09

Alittihad Misurata attack 0.84 + Almahalla defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Almahalla scores more

36%

level

30%

Alittihad Misurata scores more

34%

Almahalla at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Almahalla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff