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Almagro vs Toledo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 2019

Almagro
Almagro
CANC
22:00
Toledo
Toledo
5/9/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 18Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · Group 18 - 37Estadio Manuel Trujillo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Almagro30%
×Draw29%
Toledo41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Almagro
1.00
Toledo
1.23

Toledo creates 23% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 95 away

creates per match

Almagro
1.17
Toledo
1.01

allows per match

Almagro
1.45
Toledo
0.84

finishing

Almagro+0.00on par
Toledo+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Almagro ↓

Toledo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Almagro or draw
59%
Almagro or Toledo
71%
Draw or Toledo
70%

Winning margin

Almagro wins by 2+
11%
Toledo wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Almagro 1+ goals
63%
Almagro 2+ goals
26%
Almagro 3+ goals
8%
Toledo 1+ goals
71%
Toledo 2+ goals
35%
Toledo 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Almagro (draw refunded)
42%
Toledo (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Almagro at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.45 · 29 matches

Toledo away — creates 1.01, concedes 0.84 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Almagro attack 1.17 + Toledo defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.00

Toledo attack 1.01 + Almagro defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Almagro scores more
30%
level
29%
Toledo scores more
41%

Toledo at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Toledo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Almagro host Toledo

May 9, 2020: Almagro take on Toledo in Tercera División RFEF - Group 18. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Almagro host Toledo at Estadio Manuel Trujillo.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.