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Almagro vs Temperley — Primera Nacional 2026

Almagro
Almagro
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Temperley
Temperley
3/26/2023Primera NacionalPrimera Nacional · Group A - 8Estadio Tres de Febrero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 128+ matches

Almagro39%
×Draw33%
Temperley28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Almagro
0.99
Temperley
0.79

Almagro creates 25% more chances

Season form · 128 home / 129 away

creates per match

Almagro
0.97
Temperley
0.78

allows per match

Almagro
0.79
Temperley
1.01

finishing

Almagro+0.00on par
Temperley+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Under
  • Under74
  • Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Almagro ↓

Temperley →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–113%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (17%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
53%47%2.5
26%74%3.5
11%89%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Almagro or draw
72%
Almagro or Temperley
67%
Draw or Temperley
61%

Winning margin

Almagro wins by 2+
15%
Temperley wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Almagro 1+ goals
63%
Almagro 2+ goals
26%
Almagro 3+ goals
8%
Temperley 1+ goals
55%
Temperley 2+ goals
19%
Temperley 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Almagro (draw refunded)
58%
Temperley (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Almagro at home — creates 0.97, concedes 0.79 · 128 matches

Temperley away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.01 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Almagro attack 0.97 + Temperley defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.99

Temperley attack 0.78 + Almagro defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Almagro scores more
39%
level
33%
Temperley scores more
28%

Almagro at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Almagro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera Nacional: Almagro 2–0 Temperley

Almagro beat Temperley 2-0 in Primera Nacional on March 26, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Tres de Febrero in Tres de Febrero, Provincia de Buenos Aires.