Almagro 2–2 Guillermo Brown: Result & Stats

Almagro

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Guillermo Brown

L. Jerez 90+4'

J. Martínez 59'

L. Parisi 78'

E. Bahamonde 73'

4/24/2021

Primera Nacional · Round 7Estadio Tres de Febrero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 101+ matches

Almagro44%

×Draw32%

Guillermo Brown25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AlmagroExpected goals in this matchGuillermo Brown

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

0.75

Almagro

1.10

Guillermo Brown

0.75

Almagro creates 47% more chances

Season form · 128 home / 101 away

0.93

creates per match

0.70

0.80

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

Almagro

0.93

Guillermo Brown

0.70

allows per match

Almagro

0.80

Guillermo Brown

1.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Almagro+0.00on par

Guillermo Brown+0.00on par

Total goals

Under72
Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Almagro ↓

Guillermo Brown →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–112%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

55%45%2.5

28%72%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Almagro or draw

75%

Almagro or Guillermo Brown

68%

Draw or Guillermo Brown

56%

Winning margin

Almagro wins by 2+

18%

Guillermo Brown wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Almagro 1+ goals

67%

Almagro 2+ goals

30%

Almagro 3+ goals

10%

Guillermo Brown 1+ goals

53%

Guillermo Brown 2+ goals

17%

Guillermo Brown 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Almagro (draw refunded)

64%

Guillermo Brown (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Almagro at home — creates 0.93, concedes 0.80 · 128 matches

Guillermo Brown away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.28 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Almagro attack 0.93 + Guillermo Brown defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.10

Guillermo Brown attack 0.70 + Almagro defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Almagro scores more

44%

level

32%

Guillermo Brown scores more

25%

Almagro at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Almagro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'

13'

14'

34'

46'

E. Bahamonde← L. Lacunza

59'

J. Martínez

62'

T. Assennato← S. Hernández

67'

H. Ramirez

67'

H. Ramirez

69'

F. Del Riego← J. Martínez

73'

M. Ahumada← G. Bazán

73'

E. Bahamonde

78'

L. Parisi

79'

S. Rodríguez← B. Cuello

79'

J. Ramírez← G. Blanc

84'

A. López← M. Rueda

86'

J. Villegas← L. Parisi

90+3'

G. Jaque

90+3'

M. Ruiz Diaz

90+4'

L. Jerez

Almagro

Guillermo

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Martínez

Servetto

Manager: F. Lisa

69'▲F. Del Riego←▼J. Martínez

79'▲S. Rodríguez←▼B. Cuello

79'▲J. Ramírez←▼G. Blanc

84'▲A. López←▼M. Rueda

Almagro substitutes

RiegoRodríguezRamírezLópezBasualdoZarcoHernándezPaparattoFarías

Manager: M. Broggi

46'▲E. Bahamonde←▼L. Lacunza

62'▲T. Assennato←▼S. Hernández

73'▲M. Ahumada←▼G. Bazán

86'▲J. Villegas←▼L. Parisi

Guillermo Brown substitutes

BahamondeAssennatoAhumadaVillegasMeraBenegaBlancoGuarracino