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Almagro vs Guadalajara — Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 2019

Almagro
Almagro
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Guadalajara
Guadalajara
10/27/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 18Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · Group 18 - 11Estadio Manuel Trujillo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Almagro28%
×Draw27%
Guadalajara45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Almagro
1.04
Guadalajara
1.41

Guadalajara creates 36% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 43 away

creates per match

Almagro
1.17
Guadalajara
1.37

allows per match

Almagro
1.45
Guadalajara
0.91

finishing

Almagro+0.00on par
Guadalajara+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Almagro ↓

Guadalajara →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Almagro or draw
55%
Almagro or Guadalajara
73%
Draw or Guadalajara
72%

Winning margin

Almagro wins by 2+
10%
Guadalajara wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Almagro 1+ goals
65%
Almagro 2+ goals
28%
Almagro 3+ goals
9%
Guadalajara 1+ goals
76%
Guadalajara 2+ goals
41%
Guadalajara 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Almagro (draw refunded)
38%
Guadalajara (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Almagro at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.45 · 29 matches

Guadalajara away — creates 1.37, concedes 0.91 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Almagro attack 1.17 + Guadalajara defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.04

Guadalajara attack 1.37 + Almagro defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Almagro scores more
28%
level
27%
Guadalajara scores more
45%

Guadalajara at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Guadalajara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 18: Almagro 0–1 Guadalajara

Guadalajara beat Almagro 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 on October 27, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Manuel Trujillo in Almagro.