Almagro vs Ferro Carril Oeste — Primera Nacional 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 126+ matches
Almagro38%
Ferro Carril Oeste31%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Almagro creates 15% more chances
Season form · 126 home / 137 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under68
- Over32
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No60
- Yes40
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Almagro ↓
Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Almagro at home — creates 0.94, concedes 0.80 · 126 matches
Ferro Carril Oeste away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.20 · 137 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Almagro attack 0.94 + Ferro Carril Oeste defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.07
Ferro Carril Oeste attack 1.06 + Almagro defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.93
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 38%?"
Almagro at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 38% does not mean "Almagro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Sarmiento Junin
Arsenal Sarandi
Nueva ChicagoAlmagro
Platense
Central Cordoba de Santiago
Gimnasia M.
Independ. Rivadavia
Brown DE AdrogueFerro Carril Oeste
Atletico Mitre
Agropecuario
Villa Dalmine
Temperley
Deportivo Moron
Defensores De Belgrano
Atletico DE Rafaela
Quilmes
Gimnasia Jujuy
Guillermo Brown
Olimpo Bahia Blanca
Instituto Cordoba
Santamarina
Chacarita Juniors
Los AndesIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Almagro host Ferro Carril Oeste on Saturday, 20 September 2025 at 18:10. The match is part of the Primera Nacional 2026/2027 season.
Almagro 0 – 1 Ferro Carril Oeste
Ferro Carril Oeste beat Almagro 1-0 in Primera Nacional on September 20, 2025.
Goals: L. Parisi (40').
The match was played at Estadio Tres de Febrero in Jose Ingenieros.