Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Almagro vs Calvo Sotelo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 2019

Almagro
Almagro
CANC
00:00
Calvo Sotelo
Calvo Sotelo
4/12/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 18Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · Group 18 - 33Estadio Manuel Trujillo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Almagro34%
×Draw28%
Calvo Sotelo38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Almagro
1.13
Calvo Sotelo
1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 29 home / 93 away

creates per match

Almagro
1.17
Calvo Sotelo
1.01

allows per match

Almagro
1.45
Calvo Sotelo
1.09

finishing

Almagro+0.00on par
Calvo Sotelo+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Almagro ↓

Calvo Sotelo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Almagro or draw
62%
Almagro or Calvo Sotelo
72%
Draw or Calvo Sotelo
66%

Winning margin

Almagro wins by 2+
14%
Calvo Sotelo wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Almagro 1+ goals
68%
Almagro 2+ goals
31%
Almagro 3+ goals
11%
Calvo Sotelo 1+ goals
71%
Calvo Sotelo 2+ goals
35%
Calvo Sotelo 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Almagro (draw refunded)
47%
Calvo Sotelo (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Almagro at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.45 · 29 matches

Calvo Sotelo away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.09 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Almagro attack 1.17 + Calvo Sotelo defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.13

Calvo Sotelo attack 1.01 + Almagro defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Almagro scores more
34%
level
28%
Calvo Sotelo scores more
38%

Calvo Sotelo at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Calvo Sotelo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Almagro host Calvo Sotelo

April 12, 2020: Almagro take on Calvo Sotelo in Tercera División RFEF - Group 18. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Almagro host Calvo Sotelo at Estadio Manuel Trujillo.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.